主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 47-51.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.05.007

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

鹰厦铁路封锁警戒降水临界值及其概率预报

彭潇松1, 吴凡1, 王军胜2, 景元书3   

  1. 1. 江西省气象服务中心, 江西 南昌 330046;
    2. 南昌铁路局工务处, 江西 南昌 330046;
    3. 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 江苏 南京 210044
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-13 修回日期:2015-09-23 出版日期:2016-10-31 发布日期:2016-10-31
  • 作者简介:彭潇松,男,1984年生,工程师,主要从事铁路气象服务研究,E-mail:645826112@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    南昌铁路局科委项目“局管内水害临界雨量及评估模型研究”（201411）资助。

Rainfall thresholds and probability forecast of Yingxia railway for blocking alert

PENG Xiao-song1, WU Fan1, WANG Jun-sheng2, JING Yuan-shu3   

  1. 1. Meteorological Service Center of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330046, China;
    2. Job Office of Nanchang Railroad Bureau, Nanchang 330046, China;
    3. College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2015-08-13 Revised:2015-09-23 Online:2016-10-31 Published:2016-10-31

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摘要： 利用2004-2014年鹰厦铁路线的水害资料和降水观测资料，分析了鹰厦铁路沿线水害的时空分布特征，研究铁路封锁警戒的降水临界值及其概率预报模型。结果表明：2004-2014年鹰厦铁路沿线水害的年际变化差异大且分布不均，铁路水害发生时间集中在汛期，局地性较强；鹰厦铁路封锁警戒的降水临界值为：水害发生前1 h降水量为47 mm、水害发生前24 h降水量为108 mm、连续降水量为228 mm及水害发生前1 h降水量达30 mm且连续降水量达160 mm、水害发生前24 h降水量达100 mm 且连续降水量达160 mm；铁路封锁警戒降水的概率预报模型回报准确率达90.2%。结合铁路封锁警戒降水概率预报模型和警戒降水临界值共同判断降水天气过程是否封锁铁路运营的准确率更高，可为铁路安全运营和高效调度提供参考。

关键词: 鹰厦铁路, 水害, 降水临界值, 概率预报

Abstract: Based on the data from flood disaster and precipitation in Yingxia railway from 2004 to 2014,the temporal variation and spatial distribution of flood disaster were analyzed,and rainfall thresholds and their probability forecast model of the Yingxia railway for blocking alert were studied.The results show that there is a remarkable change in the flood disaster year by year along the Yingxia railway,normally occurring during the flood season,and meanwhile its spatial distribution is non-uniform with a strong localization feature.The rainfall thresholds for alerting to block the Yingxia railway include 1-h rainfall amount reaching 47 mm before the flood disaster occurs,24-h rainfall amount reaching 108 mm before the flood disaster occurs,the cumulative rainfall amount reaching 228 mm,1-h rainfall amount reaching 30 mm before the flood disaster occurs and meanwhile the cumulative rainfall amount reaching 160 mm,or the 24 h rainfall amount reaching 100 mm before the flood disaster occurs and at the same time the cumulative rainfall reaching 160 mm.The hindcast accuracy rate of the probability forecast model is 90.2%.The accuracy rate to judge whether block the railway or not according to the weather processes is higher when combining the probability forecast model with the alerting rainfall thresholds.This work provides useful guidance for operating the railway safely and efficiently.

Key words: Yingxia railway, Flood disaster, Rainfall thresholds, Probability forecast

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